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Written by R. Ranger Dorn, Exercise Program Director, EIS Council, June 2025
When it comes to disaster preparedness, most organizations have some kind of plan. That’s a great start, but here’s the problem: Many disaster plans are built on false assumptions.
And when a real crisis strikes, whether it’s a long-duration blackout, massive flood, or critical infrastructure failure, these assumptions collapse fast. That’s when the response turns to chaos.
Here are 7 dangerously common myths we frequently encounter in disaster planning exercises, and why they matter.
❌ False Assumption #1: “We only need 72 hours of food, water, and fuel.”
Three days isn’t nearly enough for most disasters. In a true Black Sky event, supply chains break down. Roads are blocked. Generators run out of fuel. When emergency restocking doesn’t arrive, communities face survivability concerns and a rising risk of civil unrest.
✅ Best practice: Plan to be self-sufficient for at least 7–14 days, and test those disaster plans.
❌ False Assumption #2: “We’re the priority for fuel.”
You might be high on the list in a regular emergency, but in a statewide crisis, government agencies control distribution. You could get what you need… or nothing at all.
✅ Build fuel reserves now. Don’t assume.
❌ False Assumption #3: “That kind of disaster can’t happen here.”
Just because something hasn’t happened recently doesn’t mean it can’t. Wildfires, earthquakes, floods, if they’ve happened before, they can happen again.
✅ Use historical data as a baseline, not a guarantee.
❌ False Assumption #4: “A 500-year flood only happens every 500 years.”
Communities across the U.S. have faced multiple “500-year floods” in just the past decade. The name is statistical, not predictive. Climate volatility is real.
✅ Don’t plan for averages. Plan for impact.
❌ False Assumption #5: “Tsunamis won’t go higher than 20 feet.”
History and science disagree. Some models now suggest 100-foot tsunamis are possible on the West Coast. Evacuation zones based on outdated height assumptions could prove fatal.
✅ Reevaluate coastal evacuation zones using updated seismic models.
❌ False Assumption #6: “Major retailers will provide food and water.”
Large companies often help after local events, but in a regional or national crisis, their logistics fail too. Your town may not see help for days or even weeks.
✅ Don’t depend on outside vendors. Secure your supply chains.
❌ False Assumption #7: “FEMA will deliver everything fast.”
FEMA depends on contracts, trucking, and logistics partners. These are the same overwhelmed stakeholders we rely on during large-scale events. Especially in no-notice disasters, response delays are inevitable.
✅ FEMA is a support layer, not your first line of defense.
❌ False Assumption #8: “Our staff will show up to work.”
Will they? It depends on the event and whether their families are safe. If you haven’t addressed employee expectations and family support, you’re gambling.
✅ Plan for reduced staffing. Build in cross-training and family-care protocols.
The Bottom Line: Test Assumptions, Not Luck
Disaster resilience starts by challenging comfortable assumptions. In today’s interconnected world, where power, water, fuel, food, and communication systems depend on each other, your weakest assumption may become your biggest failure point.
Learn how to tailor a disaster plan for a black sky event by joining our upcoming webinar:
Can We Blackstart the U.S. Grid Today?
📍 Challenges and Opportunities of the Rapidly Changing Electric Power Sector
📅 July 1, 2025 | 11:00 AM EDT
Join national experts as we examine how false assumptions and outdated protocols are threatening the resilience of the U.S. power grid, and what can be done to blackstart the grid after a major disruption.
👉 Register Now
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