Over-reliance on satellites to provide emergency communications during an extreme disaster has concerned me for years.  Initially, I feared satellite over-subscription would lead to communications failure when needed most.  I now believe over-subscription is the least of our concerns.

Satellites are critical infrastructure, providing: telecommunications, PNT (Position, Navigation, and Timing), weather observation, and earth observation, and have become military targets as space rapidly evolves into a new war-fighting domain.  

The following nations have established dedicated space forces or integrated their space operations within their air forces: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Spain.  The following nations have demonstrated Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons capabilities—the ability to ‘shoot-down’ a satellite:  United States, China, Russia, and India.

China has outpaced near-peer adversaries in space warfare development.  In 2014, China conducted satellite maneuvers demonstrating ‘satellite dog-fighting’—the ability of one satellite to attack another.  It is also widely believed that China has deployed kamikaze satellites—satellites armed with explosives that can be triggered to self-destruct, destroying targeted space assets.

It is feared that Russia has deployed or is planning to deploy nuclear weapons into space—in violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.  A nuclear detonation in space would destroy most, if not all, satellites, rendering Low Earth Orbit (LEO) useless—this is due in part to the Kessler Syndrome (also known as the Kessler Effect).

LEO is littered with space debris:  defunct satellites, remnants of destroyed satellites, an astronaut’s glove, etc.  Satellites, orbiting at incredible speeds—upwards of 17,500 MPH, seven times faster than high-velocity bullets—must navigate this minefield.  Collisions with space debris can destroy a satellite, generating additional debris.  

The Kessler Syndrome describes a scenario in which this destructive cycle becomes a runaway reaction, resulting in a near total destruction of all LEO satellites and rendering the LEO orbital belt useless.  Other triggers of the Kessler Syndrome include unintended satellite collisions and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs,) increasing atmospheric drag thereby altering satellite trajectories.

In addition to physical attacks, adversaries also employ cyber-attacks and electronic warfare.

Cyber-attacks include: malware, data theft, ground station exploits and command and control attacks.  Command and control attacks can allow adversaries to ‘hijack’ a satellite, turning off features or even altering its orbit.

Electronic warfare attacks include:  jamming, spoofing, and command link attacks.

Satellites have been a boon for disaster response, providing immediate global communications access, but they are not a ‘silver bullet’.  Emergency communications planners cannot rely on them as their only means of long-range communications.  There will be a point when disaster strikes, and satellites will fail.  This will not be a black swan event—an unexpected event with significant impact that is unpredictable and unforeseeable, only foreseeable through hindsight—but a gray swan event—a foreseeable event with a perceived low likelihood, often underestimated or ignored despite warnings.

Nothing happens without communication; therefore, we must have infallible solutions.  This requires layers of alternate means of communication.  One construct, often used, is the PACE (Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency) framework—it provides four layers of communications redundancy.

As leaders, as planners, we cannot simply ignore gray swan events.  It is our duty to the world, to our citizens to ensure we can respond in times of crisis. Learn more here.