Trapped in the Present: We’re All Connected, We’re All Vulnerable

Paul Williams, President EIS Council

July 24, 2024

As President of the EIS Council for the past four months, I’ve become acutely aware of the myriad potential catastrophes reported daily. These range from malicious cyber-attacks like Volt Typhoon to severe weather impacts, geomagnetic disturbances threatening our electric grid, supply chain disruptions, and nuclear threats from Putin. Every day, we are reminded of the vulnerabilities in our interconnected world.

A February 2024 YouGov poll revealed most Britons expect a third world war within 5-10 years, with 60% anticipating the use of nuclear weapons. This predates General Sir Patrick Sanders’ warning of a potential third world war within three years and a similar warning by the current head of the British Army, Gen Sir Roly Walker. The anxiety these predictions cause is amplified by the lack of substantial reporting on preparations for such scenarios. Despite the evident threats, there is a glaring lack of preparation for such scenarios. Extreme risks exist on a spectrum of “severe but plausible,” and recent years have shown that major disruptions are inevitable. Our complex, tech-supported infrastructures and supply chains—referred to as the “meta-grid”—have created a civilization-scale vulnerability where disruptions can spread unpredictably and without warning.

Normalcy bias, the tendency to assume things will continue as usual, leads to significant underestimation of risks. This bias is a defence mechanism against anxiety but results in complacency and poor preparation for sudden changes or crises. Recent events, like the global IT failure on July 19, 2024, highlight how interconnected and interdependent we are, underscoring the need for a shift in risk management and resilience building.

Our history is littered with examples of normalcy bias leading to underestimations of risk and subsequent failures to prepare adequately. The global IT failure of July 19, 2024, serves as a stark reminder of our vulnerability. Normalcy bias in risk management and a lack of understanding between risk management and resilience capability building are core issues. Another driver is the relentless pursuit of faster, cheaper, and better.

The relentless pursuit of faster, cheaper, and better has made us resilience-passive, ignoring the interdependent and interconnected reality of our infrastructures. Decision-makers must move away from traditional risk equations and embrace new concepts like Strategic Risk Policy®, focusing on the impact of decisions on networks. The resilience of critical infrastructure is crucial, and the cost of resilience must be seen as an investment in avoiding catastrophic failures.

The standard risk equation of likelihood versus consequence is outdated because some consequences are unthinkable and may happen only once. EIS Council’s Earth Ex® exercises consistently show that lack of preparation for such events makes them potentially un-survivable. The need for resilience is urgent, yet it is not built into the faster, cheaper, better meta-grid of today’s infrastructures. If we wish to survive, this must change.

The Human Continuity Project® (HCP), hosted by the EIS Council, aims to address this fragility by bringing together global leaders to develop tools, capabilities, policies, and plans for sustaining and recovering from extreme disasters. This ambitious initiative seeks to build whole-of-society resilience, involving academic institutions, corporations, NGOs, utilities, and government agencies worldwide.

The project represents a uniquely ambitious initiative to assemble and empower global leaders to collaborate in addressing this fragility as an urgent priority. As it grows, the Project will include an expanding range of respected academic and research institutions, corporations, NGOs, utilities, and government agencies from many nations worldwide.

To join this initiative and contribute to building resilience against the growing threats, please contact us.

Info@eiscouncil.org