A question that continues to bother me is this:

Why is an EMP-induced power grid failure- a clear gray swan threat- so often ignored?

It’s not an abstract curiosity. The idea that something so catastrophic, so potentially devastating, is also so conceivable and predictable keeps resurfacing as I follow world events.

So, I posed the question to ChatGPT. Here’s what it said.

Ten Reasons We Ignore Gray Swan Threats Like EMP

People tend to ignore gray swan problems- rare, high-impact events that are conceivable and even predictable, but still often dismissed- for several psychological, organizational, and systemic reasons.

Normalcy Bias: We assume tomorrow will be like today. If a catastrophe hasn’t happened before, we discount the possibility it ever will.

Cognitive Dissonance- It’s uncomfortable to admit we’re unprepared for a foreseeable disaster. So we rationalize inaction.

Short-Term Incentives- Leaders are rewarded for what happens this quarter or this election cycle, not for preventing long-range disasters.

Complexity and Uncertainty- EMP is a systems-level problem. The technical details are hard, the solutions costly, and the consequences too sprawling to visualize easily.

Social Proof and Groupthink- If no one else seems concerned, we tend not to be either. Warnings get lost in the crowd.

“Cry Wolf” Syndrome- Past warnings about EMP didn’t come true, yet. So we assume future ones won’t either.

Narrative Simplicity- EMP doesn’t make for good TV. It’s invisible, abstract, and lacks the emotional punch of floods or fires.

Siloed Expertise: EMP sits between disciplines—engineering, defense, infrastructure, space weather- so no one agency “owns” it.

Lack of Immediacy: Unlike a hurricane or wildfire, an EMP doesn’t give us a countdown. That makes it easier to put off preparation.

Hope as a Strategy: When a threat seems overwhelming, it’s easier to believe someone else is handling it, or that it won’t happen.

So, now I have an answer as to why we ignore gray swan threats. But understanding psychology doesn’t make the risk go away, especially when recent geopolitical events are making it more foreseeable, not less.

Asymmetric Warfare and Iran’s Interest in EMP

When I asked ChatGPT specifically about the EMP threat in the context of asymmetric warfare from Iran, it responded:

Iran has openly embraced asymmetric warfare as a counterbalance to U.S. conventional superiority. This includes tactics like cyber warfare, proxy terrorism, and potentially, electromagnetic attack…

• Iran has conducted high-altitude missile tests consistent with EMP strike profiles.
• Iranian military writings explicitly acknowledge EMP as a strategic, non-lethal weapon capable of collapsing modern societies.
• EMP attacks are framed as sharia-compliant because they do not directly kill civilians, at least not at first.

That last point chilled me.

As I dug deeper, I found that Iran isn’t alone. Russia, China, and North Korea also incorporate EMP into their electronic warfare doctrines, often treating it as an extension of cyber operations.

So let’s be clear:

If multiple adversaries openly include EMP in their warfighting doctrine, doesn’t that make the threat more predictable?

Questions We Should Be Asking Ourselves 

In light of this, I can’t help but ask a few questions that feel both urgent and uncomfortable:

• If we can spend billions to rip and replace Chinese-made IT hardware over embedded cyber risks, why not replace it with EMP-compliant equipment at the same time?
• If the electric grid is already projected to undergo massive expansion in the coming decade to support AI, EVs, and renewables, why not build EMP resilience into that growth?
• If we already know the threat, know the cost of inaction, and know the benefits of hardening the grid (which also protects against solar storms, cyberattacks, and natural disasters), what’s stopping us?

The Adults in the Room

At some point, we have to decide: Are we the adults in the room?

Do we want our children, and their children, to look back and say:

“They saw it coming. They took action. They protected the grid that sustained our lives.”

Or will they ask:

“How could they have known and done nothing?”

The EMP threat is a gray swan we can see. The window to act is open. The time to build resilience is now.

Let’s not wait for silence to make it clear we were too late.

By: [email protected]